Why Ontario businesses are paying attention to a potential Super El Niño

The effects of a major weather event don't always arrive with rain, snow or high winds.  

Sometimes they show up as a delayed shipment, a longer delivery route, a sudden rise in costs, or a supplier struggling to keep up with demand.  

That's one reason Ontario businesses are paying close attention to forecasts of a potential Super El Niño. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is more than a 90 per cent chance a very strong event will develop this fall and winter.   

While the climate phenomenon forms in the Pacific Ocean, its impacts can ripple through global trade networks and supply chains before eventually reaching businesses much closer to home.  

In a world where economic disruptions can travel as quickly as goods move across borders, preparedness is becoming just as important as the forecast. 

The ripple effect of global weather disruptions 

One challenge with El Niño is that no two events unfold the same way. As Pacific Ocean temperatures rise, the effects can ripple across regions and through different sectors of the economy. 

In fact, NOAA suggests there is a 75 per cent chance this El Niño could exceed the strength of previous events dating back to 1950, raising the prospect of a Super El Niño.  

One area experts are watching closely is global shipping. El Niño often brings more typhoons to the Pacific, disrupting some of the world's busiest trade routes.  

Ships travelling between Asia and the Americas may be forced to take longer routes around storm systems, increasing both travel times and fuel costs. 

Those pressures rarely stay where they start. A delay at a major port, reduced agricultural production or higher transportation costs can gradually work their way through supply chains before eventually reaching businesses here in Ontario.   

As many organizations already navigate rising costs and shifting market conditions, weather-related events have become another factor shaping planning and decision-making.   

Businesses with smaller inventories, fewer supplier options, or tighter budgets often have less flexibility when conditions change unexpectedly. A delayed shipment or higher transportation costs may require organizations to adjust schedules, find new suppliers, or rethink existing plans. 

While the exact impacts remain uncertain, forecasts like these are prompting many organizations to look beyond the local weather report and consider how events unfolding elsewhere could affect their operations. 

Businesses are already feeling the impact 

Business owners don't have to look very far for examples of how quickly weather can affect operations. 

A washed-out road, wildfire smoke delaying transportation routes or a prolonged heat wave straining infrastructure can quickly turn a normal business day into a logistical puzzle. 

That experience is already familiar to many organizations, as research from Marsh found that 67 per cent of Canadian organizations reported impacts from extreme weather over the past three years.  

Those impacts extended well beyond damaged buildings and equipment, affecting customers, infrastructure, supply chains, and day-to-day operations. 

The findings also suggest the effects don't always appear where businesses might expect. While storms and flooding are often the most visible impacts, organizations also reported effects on customers, critical infrastructure, and natural resources. 

In many cases, the impacts surfaced through transportation networks, service interruptions, or issues affecting suppliers and customers. 

Canadians have already seen how weather can affect communities, transportation corridors and essential services. In recent years, wildfires, floods, heat waves and severe storms have disrupted travel, delayed shipments, and created issues well beyond the areas directly affected. 

The lesson for business owners isn't that every weather event will create major problems. It's that the effects can show up in unexpected places, making it worth understanding where operations may be most vulnerable and what plans are in place if circumstances suddenly change. 

What preparedness looks like for small and medium-sized businesses 

Planning for the unexpected doesn't have to mean preparing for every possible scenario. More often, it starts with understanding the situations most likely to interrupt day-to-day operations.   

The Business Development Bank of Canada encourages businesses to consider a range of extreme weather events, including floods, wildfires, and extreme heat.  While no two businesses face the same circumstances, planning ahead starts with understanding what could interrupt day-to-day operations and how the organization would respond. 

The good news is that preparation doesn't always require major investments or a complete business overhaul. In many cases, it starts with taking a closer look at daily operations and asking a few practical questions.  

Could operations continue if employees couldn't travel? Is there an alternative supplier if a critical delivery is delayed? How quickly could staff, customers and vendors be reached during an emergency?  

The answers can reveal gaps that might otherwise go unnoticed. Business continuity plans, updated emergency procedures, secure backups, and clear communication strategies can all help reduce confusion and keep operations moving when circumstances change unexpectedly.  

Employee support can also be part of the conversation. Businesses may look at everything from benefits plans and employee assistance resources to roadside support for staff who spend significant time travelling for work.  

Seasonal forecasts may not provide certainty, but they can serve as a useful reminder to review plans, update procedures and think through potential concerns before winter arrives. 

Don't overlook transportation and fleet readiness 

Whether it's a delivery van, service vehicle or company fleet, transportation often sits at the centre of daily operations.  

Winter weather can add strain to that system. Snow-covered roads, poor visibility, vehicle breakdowns, and travel delays can affect everything from employee commutes and service appointments to shipments and client meetings.  

Because so many businesses depend on their vehicles, even a single missed delivery, delayed service call, or unexpected breakdown can affect schedules, customer relationships and productivity. 

Before winter arrives, organizations can reduce the likelihood of those interruptions by ensuring vehicles receive regular maintenance, checking batteries and tires, reviewing emergency procedures, and monitoring road conditions when employees are travelling.  

Access to support when problems arise can also make a difference. A dead battery, flat tire or roadside breakdown may seem minor, but minimizing downtime can help keep employees safe and operations running smoothly.  

That's one reason many organizations include roadside assistance in their business continuity planning, helping ensure employees have access to support when unexpected vehicle issues occur.  

Services such as CAA Business Membership can provide roadside assistance and support when vehicles are unexpectedly taken out of service, helping businesses stay on the move when the unexpected happens. provide roadside assistance and support when vehicles are unexpectedly taken out of service, helping businesses stay on the move when the unexpected happens. 

A reminder beyond the weather 

Seasonal forecasts can offer insight, but they don't provide certainty. Businesses can control how they prepare for the unexpected. 

Reviewing continuity plans, strengthening supplier relationships, maintaining vehicles, and ensuring employees have access to support can help reduce disruption when circumstances change. 

Whether the next challenge starts down the street or across an ocean, preparation remains one of a business's strongest tools.